bitcoin Bulls Eyeing Potential Surge Following US Fed Rate Cut
As bitcoin gains strength in the wake of the US Federal Reserve's decision to slash interest rates, market analysts are predicting a potential bull market on the horizon. In a recent post by popular analyst crypto Rover on X, reference to historical post-halving trends indicates that a bitcoin bull market may kick off within the next 15-20 days as we near the end of an accumulation phase.
bitcoin bull market over past halving cycles. Source: CryptoRover / X.">
This outlook mirrors prior remarks made by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who observed that past post-halving rallies typically commenced in the fourth quarter of each halving year. Young Ju emphasized that "whales won’t let Q4 be boring with a flat YoY performance," suggesting significant market movements as the year draws to a close.
Combined technical and historical factors have ignited speculation that Q4 2024 could be pivotal for bitcoin, with the possibility of a six-figure bitcoin still in play as we edge closer to 2025.
Key Catalyst for a Bull Market: The US Election
This optimistic projection coincides with an anticipated major catalyst: the imminent US presidential election, which is projected to usher in new all-time highs due to positive drivers prevailing irrespective of the election outcome.
Market anticipations are high that the elected candidate will usher in a departure from the regulatory stance towards cryptocurrencies under the Biden administration, potentially creating a more favorable environment for digital assets.
Former President Donald Trump has vocally advocated for making the US the global "crypto capital," contrasting with Vice President Kamala Harris, who has exhibited a more restrained approach. Reports suggest Harris may adopt a balanced regulatory stance towards the crypto sphere.
Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty emphasized the necessity for establishing a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the US, noting the importance of recognizing the economic value and innovation that the technology can bring.
Warning Signs: US Fed Rate Cut Signals Economic Concerns
Despite the prevailing optimism, some market analysts harbor reservations, citing the US Federal Reserve's recent decision to slash interest rates by 50 basis points as a potential precursor to an impending recession.
The rate cut has been construed as an emergency measure to manage a weakening job market. Historical data indicates that significant rate reductions have historically preceded economic downturns, with the last two instances culminating in significant declines in the S&P 500.
While the rate cut may initially provide a boost to bitcoin and other prominent cryptocurrencies, experts caution that the potential for broader economic repercussions could dampen long-term enthusiasm. 10x Research highlights that a 50 basis point cut could signal deeper concerns to the markets, potentially prompting reduced investor exposure to risk assets like bitcoin.
Speculations abound that these developments could trigger a 15-20% downturn to new lows once initial excitement wanes and concerns about an economic slowdown take center stage.
